Our market

Rental growth for best-in-class

Our Market

The past year has seen significant headwinds impact the central London office market. The macroeconomic landscape has been altered by multiple geopolitical and economic events which
have weakened the economic outlook; this and the recent rapid paradigm shift in monetary policy have combined to present
a difficult environment for real estate.

The fundamentals of the office occupier market remain robust and aligned to our strategy. Occupiers continue to seek to provide best-in-class working environments for their employees.

The economic environment

Over the course of the past year the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has pursued an agenda of sustained, rapid interest rate rises to moderate the inflationary pressures experienced across the economy. On 1 April 2022 the Bank Rate stood at 0.75% and it has subsequently increased nine times to 4.50%. The impact of this adjustment to monetary policy has been felt throughout the economy and within the central London office market it has been most keenly felt in two areas: outward yield shift and increased cost
of debt.

Investment market

After an encouraging rebound in investment volumes in 2021 and early 2022, the investment market was subdued in the second half of 2022 as the market paused to assess the impact of interest rate rises upon yields. At £0.7bn, the volume of investment transactions in Q4 2022 represented the lowest quarterly figure since 1996 and illustrated the impact of the increasing cost of debt and economic uncertainty. Transaction volumes increased in Q1 2023 to £1.7bn, albeit this is still below the long-term average and there remains limited transactional evidence to fully substantiate pricing.

The MSCI London City Equivalent Yield, which includes both prime and non-prime office buildings, has moved to 6.40% in April 2023 from 5.31% in April 2022. However, best-in-class office yields have been less impacted, with our portfolio adjusting by 79bps over the same period.

Whilst limited in number, the transactions that have taken place have demonstrated less dramatic outward movements in pricing for the best-in-class assets. In contrast, poorer quality assets, characterised by significant vacancy, short unexpired lease terms and weak sustainability credentials resulting in the imminent need to invest significant capital expenditure, have seen continued significant downward repricing, further illustrating the bifurcation within the market.

The volatility in swap rates and the rapid increase in the Bank Rate have had significant adverse implications for the cost of external debt which has also suppressed investment volumes. Yet the debt markets remain open, with an increasingly diverse lender pool seeking opportunities to deploy significant amounts of capital. Undoubtedly, the challenges presented in the current market are making lenders more discerning in their choice of counterparty, but leverage is still available for experienced borrowers delivering credible business plans. The rise in the all-in cost of debt has required a reassessment of the composition of capital structures, with external debt no longer being as accretive to value but continuing to enable equity to be spread across new opportunities.

The past year has seen best-in-class assets continue to outperform. Record rents continue to be achieved for the limited best-in-class space available, as tenants demonstrate a willingness to pay a premium to occupy these buildings, as seen at The JJ Mack Building, EC1. In contrast, secondary buildings are becoming increasingly obsolete as tenant demand for these assets shrinks and tenant controlled secondary supply remains high. New build vacancy remains low at 1.4% whilst overall vacancy remains above the long-term average at 8.5%, driven by second-hand space which represents 67% of total availability in the central London market.

Occupational market

Following the Covid-19 related lockdowns, we have seen an extended period of stability enabling businesses to refine their workplace practices to reflect lower occupational densities and, while more flexible ways of working exist, there is still the need to accommodate peak occupancy. These trends have resulted in generally similar space requirements compared to pre-pandemic levels, with certain sectors expanding their footprint to accommodate growth and increasing amenity offerings to employees.

Increasingly businesses are encouraging employees to work primarily in the office and the sustained return to office working has exceeded the predictions of the more negative commentators. Employers and employees alike are experiencing the benefits to culture and innovation the office environment brings and this is apparent with take up for 2022 up 28% on 2021 levels at 12.3m sq ft. Occupiers remain focused upon providing their employees with the optimal workplace environment and continue to seek buildings with the highest levels of amenity, connectivity, service and sustainability, which aligns with our portfolio characteristics.

The current macroeconomic turbulence has had contrasting impacts on sectors throughout the economy. While the technology sector has experienced a year of rebalancing, the banking, finance and professional services sectors have demonstrated their resilience and make up 61% of the 9.0m sq ft of active demand in the market as at February 2023, according to global real estate consultancy JLL.

Occupiers are not immune to cost pressures, with rising fit-out costs and operational energy price increases impacting the all-in cost of occupation, and this may moderate the pace of rental growth in the short term for the best space. However, the benefits of investment in best-in-class product should translate into continued and strong demand from occupiers across a variety of sectors.

Development pipeline

The past year has seen significant construction cost inflation, peaking within the London market at over 10% in 2022. The impact of energy price rises and imbalances in supply and demand dynamics for key materials as well as labour shortages have all contributed to persistently high inflation. The effect of rising building costs upon the sector is nuanced with the broad headline rate only partially articulating the wider picture, with specific areas of the construction sector including steel, rebar and structural timber seeing greater levels of inflation.

Furthermore, energy intensive materials, such as concrete and plasterboard, remain exposed to future volatility as energy price protections are slowly released.

Moving forward, the expectation is for inflationary pressures to moderate, with property consultancy, Arcadis, predicting a more stable 3% building cost inflation forecast over the medium term, although uncertainty remains.

While we remain of the view that the opportunity exists to deliver best-in-class product into a supply constrained market, some investors will be reassessing business plans in light of significant rises in material and debt costs alongside an increasingly complex planning environment.

Deloitte’s latest Crane Survey highlights new starts have begun to increase, with 4.4m sq ft of new sites commencing in the six months to 31 March 2023, across 50 schemes. Of these new starts, the trend towards refurbishment is also illustrated, with 37 of the 50 schemes recorded as refurbishment projects. These levels of development, while encouraging, will be insufficient to accommodate the 23.5m sq ft of lease expiries occurring up to 2027 on office space over 20,000 sq ft in London identified by Knight Frank, where tenants are likely to look for best-in-class alternative space.

Alongside new starts, work will be required across central London to upgrade the existing unsustainable occupied buildings ahead of 2030, with c.75% of space currently below EPC B. With many assets facing obsolescence upon upcoming lease events, owners will be required to invest considerable capital to bring these assets back to the market in a manner which will be both sustainable and attractive to occupiers. At present a disparity continues to exist between the value expectations of buyers and sellers, driven partly by the mispricing of the costs of refurbishment. However, once the gap has sufficiently closed there will be good opportunity to acquire and reposition these assets, allowing us to take advantage of our skillset and track record.

Overall

Our portfolio of best-in-class, sustainable buildings remains optimally placed to outperform the market in the current environment. Furthermore, Helical’s expertise is well suited to take advantage of the challenges that face the sector and seize upon the undoubted opportunities that exist within the central London market.